[VNA] Falling oil price and impacts on Vietnam’s economy

VietNamNet Bridge – The sharp decrease in world oil price over the past three months is expected to affect Vietnam’s oil export earnings as well as a wide range of socio-economic aspects.

  

As the budget revenue estimate for 2015 was calculated based on the oil price of around 100 USD per barrel, the Government recently had to convene a meeting to discuss ways to respond to this trend.

The meeting agreed that with the low world price, it is inevitable that the country would have to reduce output and even suspend production at some wells where pumping cost is high.

According to the Industry and Trade Ministry, when the price falls to 40 USD per barrel, crude oil output and export would be cut by between 1.8-2 million tonnes. As a result, the production target of 14.74 million tonnes of oil equivalent this year would not be met, not to mention adverse impacts on oil exploitation and refinery projects both at home and abroad.

Nguyen Xuan Son, Chairman of PetroVietnam Member Council, said the group has developed its own scenarios for 2015. Accordingly, the group’s total revenues would drop to 434.5 trillion VND (20.2 billion USD) and remittance to the State budget would be only 79.8 trillion VND (3.7 billion USD) in case the oil price is 40 USD per barrel compared to 718 trillion VND and 159 trillion VND, respectively, if the price is 100 USD per barrel.

Minister of Planning and Investment Bui Quang Vinh noted that every 1 USD reduction in oil price means a loss of nearly 1 trillion VND (46.5 million USD) for the country, and if the world price falls to 40 USD per barrel, Vietnam’s earnings from oil will be slashed by nearly 70 trillion VND (3.25 billion USD).

He nevertheless said that the losses can be made up with increases in economic growth and tax collections. According to the ministry’s calculation, budget revenues will be reduced by 1.5 trillion VND when the oil price stands at 60 USD per barrel, 9.5 trillion VND when the price drops to 50 USD and 11.5 trillion VND when oil is at 40 USD per barrel.

The economic growth is also expected to suffer from the oil price fall, and in the worst scenario with oil price at 40 USD per barrel, the growth for this year would be only 5.2 percent instead of the targeted 6.2 percent, according to Minister Vinh.

He was quick to add that even then, there would be good things for the economy such as less dependency on oil export and more economical spending.

However, many economic experts said the falling world oil price is not that worrying, as the public and society has benefited greatly from it. As petrol price has reduced by more than one third, from 25,000 VND per litre to nearly 16,000 VND, transport costs have begun to decrease, helping businesses cut costs and increase profit.

According to statistics experts, a 20 percent reduction in petrol price could bring about a GDP growth of between 1.8 and 2 percent.

VNA

Dung Quat Refinery expansion plan fixed at 8.5 mln tons of crude and investment of USD 1.82 billion

After much study and calibration, the ambitious plan to expand and upgrade the Dung Quat oil refinery based in Dung Quat Economic Zone of central coastal Quang Ngai province has been eventually fixed and ratified by an Investment Certificate issued by the local government. The target capacity is announced to be 8.5 million tons of crude per year (192,000 barrels per day),  lower than the figure of 10 million tons as tentatively publicized previously. The total cost for this plan is said to be roughly 1.81 billion USD, 30% of which shall be contributed by the involved partner(s) and the remaining 70% shall comes from loans, according to a news article from PVN/BSR.

A ceremony was organized on 23rd Jan 2015 at Dungquat EZ to officially announce the expansion project.

The expansion plan will involve the construction of some new technological units, upgrade the capacity of existing units, building more crude oil tanks, product tanks, upgrading the existing loading jetties ... so that more crude can be processed, a wider variety of crude input types can be handled by the refinery, and the products can meet the environment standard of Euro V. Besides the current single point mooring (SPM) accessible for  150,000 DWT crude vessels, another SPM for vessels up to 300,000 DWT will also be built.

Layout of the Dung Quat Refinery expansion area.

It’s projected that the work for FEED contract and license contract shall finish in Q. II 2015, EPC contract shall be executed since Q.IV 2017 until Q.III 2021 and the expanded refinery shall be put into operation before 2022.

The investment certificate came after an announcement on the Prime Minister’s approval for this expansion plan. Accordingly, the Prime Minister agreed to let Petrovietnam invest this project on its own in parallel with negotiating with Gazpromnheft (Russia) about the [possibility/options of] transferring. Considering the dropping oil price, it seems that Petrovietnam will still maintain its role as the sole owner of Dungquat refinery until there is an official announcement on when and how the Russian oil giant will become a stakeholder in this project.

According to PVN yearly review for 2014, the operator of Dungquat refinery being Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company (BSR) under PetroVietnam  processed 6.4 million tons of crude into 5.81 million tons of oil products and reached a revenue of approximately USD 6 billion, contributed to the state budget more than USD 1 billion.

The revenue targeted for 2015 was announced to be lower than last year, at roughly USD 5.75 billion. 

Dungquat’s refinery upgrade and expansion plan estimated to cost $2 billion

PetroVietnam Deputy General Director Le Manh Hung acknowledged during a recent meeting with the Authority of Quang Ngai, where the Dungquat refinery is located, that the plan to upgrade and expand this refinery shall be kicked off in Q.1 2015, clear site should be available in Q2 2016, and construction will commence in Q.3 2017 and expectedly complete in 2021.

The upgrade and expansion plan is estimated to cost between 1.8 to 2 billion USD and shall raise the refinery’s annual capacity from the current 6.5 million tons of crude oil to 10 million tons.

Surroundings of the current refinery

Much hope is being casted on the formation of a giant refining-petrochemical center in the Dung Quat area where there would be many petrochemical plants to follow, not just an alone oil refinery because after upgrade and expansion, the refinery can handle more diversified types of crude oil, with more types of by-products to be used as input materials for downstream petrochemical plants. 

Research and preparation work for this project started since 2009 - the time when the Dungquat oil refinery was completed and put into operation. According to the latest study, two options are now under consideration: the project shall be invested solely by Vietnam or it shall be joined by a foreign partner, possibly Russian Gazprom group.

The necessary area for the upgrade and expansion of the refinery area is 108.2 hectares, of which 94 hectares shall be used for construction works, the safety corridor is around 14.2 hectares. In order to get such space for expansion, it’s projected to relocate around 400 families away from the area and remove some existing civil facilities.

In the latest event, Deputy Prime Minister has ordered PetroVietnam to complete the investment Project and submit to the Industry and Trade Ministry in November this year for evaluation. The project shall be evaluated by a Council to be set up by Ministry of Industry and Trade, with the participation of related Ministries and Quang Ngai province People’s Committee, and then be reported to Prime Minister by the end of 2014.

Vung Ro - the third refinery project in Vietnam kicks off

Vietnam has begun construction of Vung Ro oil refinery and petrochemical project in Phu Yen province in the Southern Central Coast of Vietnam. The project, which has an investment of nearly $3.2 billion, is designed to have a capacity of refining 8 million tons of crude per year, and cover an area of 538 hectares, including the area to develop a supporting seaport, according to the Vietnam News Agency.

Groundbreaking Ceremony of Vung Ro Refinery & Petrochemical Project in the south central coast province Phu Yen.

The refinery configuration allows producing fuel products of high quality (LPG, Gasoline RON 92/95, Jet Fuel, Diesel, Fuel Oil) and petrochemical products (Benzene, Toluene, Mixed Xylene, Polypropylene). The products are said to satisfy both current Vietnam specifications and international standards.

Product Slates	VRP Blend (Yield, TPA)	Arabian Light (Yield, TPA)
LPG	388,293	236,307
Gasoline RON 92/95	2,168,403	2,011,559
Jet Fuel	665,546	528,828
Diesel	2,633,036	2,398,811
Fuel Oil	0	867,500
Benzene	73,217	44,069
Toluene	182,869	169,336
Mixed Xylenes	349,082	311,953
Polypropylene	564,222	390,375
Sulfur	7,981	94,037
Total	7,032,649	7,052,775

Source: VRP website

Upon completion, the refinery is expected to create around 1,300 jobs, not to mentioned around 15,000 headcounts shall involve in the construction period and around US$ 110 million of various taxes shall be paid per annum.

General layout of Vung Ro Refinery & Petrochemical Complex. Source: VRP

This is the third refinery project launched in Vietnam, after the Dungquat refinery operating since 2009 and the Nghi Son refinery being now under construction. The latest news from Binh Dinh Province Authority on 11^th Sept 2014also revealed that detailed ffeasibilitystudy for the US$ 22 billion refinery project of 400,000 bpd has been submitted to Vietnam Ministry of  Industry and Trade for consideration. This project is invested by Thailand-based PTT Group and Saudi Aramco Group and is expected to be joined by other partners.

Under the circumstances of several refineries to come on stream in the next few years, including the fact that the current Dung Quat refinery is working on upgrade and expansion plan, experts foresee the situation of fuel supply exceeding domestic demand; then there’s a high possibility that Vietnam would become a petroleum exporter in the future. 

150,000 DWT oil tanker accesses Dungquat SPM

According to news released by PVN, on 23^rd August 2014, Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited (BSR) successfully received crude oil tanker of 150,000 DWT to import 1 million barrels of AZERI crude oil from Azerbaijan through the Single Point Mooring (SPM) system of Dung Quat Oil Refinery. This is the biggest first-ever oil tanker accessing this facility after 5 years of operation; in the past, only tankers of up to 110,000 DWT could visit here.

During the 2^ndoverall maintenance of the refinery which lasted 57 days, nearly 7,000 items were done with the involvement of 3,400 professional staffs of BSR, contractors, partners. It was divided into 5 main packages, notably the the package 4 was implemented by BSR themselves including the maintenance of rotating equipment, electrical equipment, automation equipment, a number of simple static devices and oil pipelines. Meanwhile, the repair of defects for thermal expansion joints EX-101 in RFCC workshop was conducted by Technip/JGC contractor (EPC contractor of Dung Quat Oil Refinery Plant) and connection of awaiting ends for SRU 2 project was implemented by JGC contractor.

The first 150,000 DWT Oil Tanker at Dungquat SPM. Photo courtesy: PVN

Following the successful maintenance and upgrading of single-point mooring buoy, BSR imported the first crude oil from tanker of 150,000 DWT instead of 110,000 DWT previously. At transformation cost of US$ 300,000 only, SPM system has been improved to receive crude oil vessels of double capacity from Aframax vessel size (80,000 - 110,000 DWT) to Suezmax vessel size (150,000 DWT). Currently, BSR is capable of receiving crude oil from different regions of the world such as West Africa, the Mediterranean ... to help diversify sources of crude oil for processing at Dung Quat Oil Refinery, improving efficiency, reducing production costs and saving USD 10-15 million .

It was the 398^thcrude oil vessel received BSR through this SPM since the plant was put into operation in 2009, with totally 31,288,140 million tons of crude oil handled, approximately 27,985,737 tons of products refined.

JGC led JV Awarded Contract for Refinery and Petrochemical Complex in Vietnam

Jan 2013

               

Yokohama Japan – JGC Corporation (JGC), Chiyoda Corporation (Chiyoda), Technip, and South Korean contractors GS Engineering & Construction (GS) and SK Engineering & Construction (SK) today jointly announced that the joint venture, formed by JGC, Chiyoda, Technip, GS and SK, has received notification of the award of a contract for the Nghi Son refinery and petrochemicals complex in the Nghi Son economic zone in northern Vietnam. The contract was awarded by the Nghi Son Refinery Petrochemical Limited Liability Company, a joint venture between Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd (35.1%), Kuwait Petroleum International (35.1%), Vietnam Oil and Gas Corporation (25.0%), and Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. (4.8%). The lump-sum turnkey contract calls for the engineering, procurement, construction (EPC) and commissioning work for an oil refinery with a production capacity of 200,000 barrels per day. The complex, scheduled for completion in late 2016, will be located in the Thanh Hoa Province in Vietnam, 200 km south of the capital city of Hanoi. The value of the contract was not disclosed.

This project, which is being promoted by Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd., Kuwait Petroleum International, Vietnam Oil and Gas Corporation, and Mitsui Chemicals, Inc. is a grassroots oil refinery and petrochemical complex project in Vietnam. This project will be the second constructed in Vietnam, and is aimed at satisfying increasing demands for petroleum products to support the progress of Vietnam's motorization, as well as produce petrochemicals for export. Together with Vietnam's first refinery, the Dung Quat refinery (constructed by a consortium of JGC, Technip and others, and completed in 2009), the Nghi Son refinery and petrochemical complex will be a major pillar supporting the country's economic development.

JGC has been targeting marketing activities toward Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, and has been concurrently working on strengthening and expanding JGC Vietnam, an EPC subsidiary of JGC established in Vietnam in 2009. Part of JGC's portion of this project is scheduled to be constructed by JGC Vietnam.

JGC plans to become involved in many more oil refining and petrochemicals projects in Vietnam in the future. JGC has been responsible for the construction of more than fifty oil refineries, and JGC and JGC Vietnam are focusing marketing activities on Southeast Asia in hopes of contributing to building Vietnam's industrial base and furthering economic development.

Source: JGC

Russia to sell Vietnam more military hardware

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said his country is going to increase the assortment of military hardware it sells to the Vietnamese army.

The announcement comes on the heels of Putin’s one-day trip to Hanoi where he met with President Truong Tan Sang and other leaders.

The Russian president has said the two nations today signed a new military deal that will see Russia train Vietnamese navy and armed forces.

Russian firms Rosneft and Gazprom also signed a raft of deals with state energy firm Petrovietnam tackling oil exploration and modernization of Vietnam’s oil refinery.

Putin said Gazprom was to supply the Dung Quat refinery with oil and help it market the produce.

Moscow has also promised to help Hanoi develop its nascent energy industry, building a nuclear energy plant and training its atomic experts. Russia will take part in creating the country’s first Center of Nuclear Science and Technology.

The countries concluded a package of cooperation contracts in ecology, healthcare and industry, including textile manufacturing.

In the meanwhile, the International Investment Bank and the Vietnamese Investment bank have agreed a $50 million loan to Vietnam to boost its small business.

Source: Voice of Russia